When U.S. President Donald Trump announced earlier this week that he would make a primetime televised address to the nation Wednesday, speculation immediately abounded that he would announce an escalation of his ongoing military pressure campaign against Venezuela. Tucker Carlson, the far-right commentator and former Fox News host, even said a member of Congress told him that “a war is coming” with Venezuela, and that it would be announced in Trump’s address. | Carlson was quick to caveat his statement. “Who knows, by the way, if that will actually happen? I don’t know, and I never want to overstate what I know, which is pretty limited in general.” | Ultimately, it didn’t happen: Trump’s address focused largely on domestic issues rather than foreign policy. But even if the timing was off, Carlson’s ominous prediction may very well come true in the future. | This week, Trump wrote in a social media post that he had ordered “A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela.” The announcement came days after the U.S. seized a tanker that was carrying Venezuelan oil, bound for Cuba and China. That ship was the target of a warrant issued by a federal judge, as it had allegedly transported oil from Iran in the past. | While Trump’s order doesn’t appear to amount to a full blockade of all maritime traffic, he also vowed to continue ratcheting up the pressure on Venezuela, “Until such time as they return to the United States of America all of the Oil, Land, and other Assets that they previously stole from us.” While it was not clear what Trump was referring to, Deputy White House Chief of Staff Stephen Miller weighed in in a post on X, writing that “American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.” | The history that Miller is referring to, of course, is far more complex. U.S. companies were indeed heavily involved in the early stages of oil production in Venezuela, under sweeping concessions granted by the dictator Juan Vicente Gomez following the discovery of vast oil deposits during the early 20th century. | The Venezuelan government subsequently began taking steps to nationalize the oil industry, a process that was completed in 1976, when assets belonging to firms like Exxon, Mobil, Chevron and Shell were combined into a new state-owned company, Petroleos de Venezuela. Under the terms of a negotiated settlement, foreign companies were compensated for their assets. | A subsequent deregulation in the 1990s once again brought in foreign investment, but that happy arrangement came to an end in the 2000s, when President Hugo Chavez sought to unilaterally alter the terms under which U.S. corporations operated in the country to make them more favorable for Venezuela. Companies that refused saw their assets expropriated, sparking legal claims for compensation. | Today, decades of underinvestment, mismanagement and corruption have made Venezuela’s oil production a fraction of what it once was. Still, many Venezuelans view the industry as an important symbol of wealth and prestige. “It is difficult to overstate the mythical importance oil holds in Venezuela,” The New York Times’ Simon Romero wrote this week. “Like beauty pageant winners and baseball, oil is a source of national pride and a prism through which Venezuelans often compare their society to others.” | Given the pervasive sense of oil nationalism in Venezuela, Trump’s belligerent rhetoric and targeting of oil shipments could very well backfire. As Romero pointed out, the U.S. blockade of sanctioned vessels has already driven a wedge between different factions of the opposition to President Nicolas Maduro. Some—like Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Corina Machado—came out in support of the blockade, while others criticized Trump’s stated desire for Venezuelan oil as an impingement on the country’s sovereignty. | “Venezuela belongs to the Venezuelans. Period,” Luis Florido, an opposition figure and former lawmaker, wrote on X. “No one can claim rights over the oil, because the National Constitution prohibits it.” | Following Trump’s announcement, Maduro’s government has begun sending tankers to sea accompanied by Venezuelan naval vessels, dramatically raising the risk of a military confrontation that could spark a wider conflict. Should such a disastrous scenario come to pass, it would be truly ironic for a president who has fashioned himself as “peacemaker-in-chief.” |
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